At the conclusion of the 2012 finals, there will be a coronation: either LeBron James will finally secure his first ring, cementing his status as the world's best and forcing the haters to munch copious amounts of crow, or Kevin Durant and the Thunder will claim the title, Durant will be considered the league's alpha dog, and we will be subjected to endless platitudes from Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith on why KD has a shot to be the best player of all time. Also on the line: a second ring for Wade, a sixth ring for Fisher, Kendrick Perkins' chance to be the starting center for two separate title teams, the Heat's reputation as floppers, primadonnas, and choke artists, and the word "champion" being associated with Chris Bosh more closely than dinosaur, ostrich, emo, third banana, and troll. Not to mention which team will get the upper footing on NBA supremacy for the next five years. So who will take it down? Let's see who has the advantage in eight key categories:
PG: Russell Westbrook vs. Mario Chalmers
Chalmers is a nice player, and has proven time and again that he has the requisite stones to take, and make, big shots. The Heat PG definitely plays with a considerable chip on his shoulder- in his mind he truly believes he is the fourth member of the Heatles. The yappy Kansas product is also one of the more adept guys in the league at getting under an opposing players' skin. However, he is a gambling, pass-lane cheating defender, which is not conducive to shutting down an explosive guard like Westbrook. Russ plays the game with a fury and savagery quite unlike any point guard the league has ever seen. After being thoroughly abused on the defensive end by Rajon Rondo, we can be sure that Chalmers does not have the speed or athleticism to slow down Westbrook, who is stronger than Rondo and a much better finisher at the rim. With the Heat's lack of PG defense, expect to see a lot of D-Wade on Westbrook, and at least 3 big scoring outputs (25-30 pts) from the second-team all NBA PG. Chalmers will hold his own on offense and will make timely shots, but will not come close to Westbrook's overall productivity nor wreak the sort of transition havoc #0 for OKC can create.
Advantage: Thunder
SG: Dwyane Wade vs. James Harden
Yes, Thabo Sefelosha starts, but much like Manu Ginobili, Harden will be getting starter's minutes at the wing and will be on the court during crunch time, which is why he earns the starter comparison here. Both Harden and Wade are big, physical, 2-guards, and playmaking defenders. Both are among the best in the league at splitting double teams, although Harden is a more adept passer off penetration and Wade is the slightly better finisher with contact. Wade makes an impact with help-side shot blocking, but does not possess Harden's ability to stretch the court with the three ball. Wade is a petulant crybaby, a flopper, and has fat cheeks (sorry had to get that one off) while Harden has the league's most dominant facial hair. Unfortunately, have to give Wade the edge here due to his experience, clutch finals history, and ability to bend the refs to his whim.
Advantage: Heat
SF: Kevin Durant vs. Lebron James
The matchup they all came to see. "The one we can't wait to crown" vs. "The one we want more than anything to fail." MVP vs. MVP runner-up. King James vs. Kid Clutch. Despite the incessant, churning criticism, LeBron has turned in one of the greatest postseasons of all-time to date, putting up 31pts-10reb-5asst-2stls on 51% from the field through the first 3 rounds. To this point, LBJ's game has shone brightest when the talk got loudest and the Heat's back was shoved against the wall. (see: 40-18-9, down 2-1 in Indiana, and 45-15-5 facing elimination in Boston). Meanwhile LeBron has effectively shut down 3 of the league's best quick forwards in Carmelo Anthony, Danny Granger, and Paul Pierce. Can he do the same to Durant? The short answer, no. Durant is going to get his numbers, but up against the fearsome defense of Lebron, he will have to work harder than ever for it. On the other side, Durant's rise in not just skill, but maturity, has been meteoric. In these playoffs, his ridiculous scoring ability and clutch shot-making have been paired with a keen understanding of when to pass to an open teammate and improved activity on the defenseive end (1.5 stls and 1.3 blocks per game in the playoffs.)
LeBron, at face value, is the better player, but Durant fits into a traditional basketball archetype- he is a scorer- and his teammates understand this, which allows them to build their flow and team identity on top of that ability. On the other hand, LeBron transcends a traditional role. He must do it all for his team- he is the Heat's best passer, interior rebounder, defender, and scorer. While this makes him on one hand perhaps the most versatile player of all time, it also can force the Heat into periods of stagnation, star-gazing, and praying that LeBron's greatness will bail them out (looking at you, Spo.) Finally, while LeBron has indeed been clutch throughout the postseason, the final shot in these tightly contested playoff games where legends are cemented, is almost always, a jumphot. Durant is the better shooter, and is building upon an already long list of daggers and postseason game-winners. Down 2 with 15 seconds left I'd rather have Durant with the ball, but over the course of 48 minutes, Lebron's end-to-end greatness gets the nod.
Slight advantage: Heat
PF: Chris Bosh vs. Serge Ibaka
Bosh and Ibaka bring very different things to the table- Bosh outside shooting (three 3's in game 7 vs the Celtics) and post scoring, and Ibaka help-side shot blocking and the ability to knock down the open mid-range shot, to the sure delight of @AaronRodgers12. Both are long, athletic, and will finish on the break. Bosh's stamina seems to be in a good place after logging 31 minutes and putting up 19-8 on the C's just two games after returning from a 3 week absence. Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder's best individual post defender, will also see time checking Bosh. The Bostrich gets the edge here as he will get more touches and opportunities than Ibaka, although the Serge protector's energy and play-making ability will be a huge factor. Bosh must match Ibaka's energy level and rebounding for the Heat to not be completely decimated on the glass.
Advantage: Heat
C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Joel Anthony/Ronny Turiaf/Udonis Haslem/Juwan Howard's corpse
Do we even have to touch on this? Perk is an elite post defender, an imposing force down low, and is motivated by his desire to eat Steve Kerr alive. Oh, he's not announcing this series? Just take it out on Mike Breen then, Perk He will also contribute 8-12 points, and makes opposing guards think twice about driving to the bucket, despite never having committed a foul in his career. Haslem is a very good rebounder for his size and nearly automatic with an open 15 footer, but calling him a center is a stretch. The rest of the Heat big men, in a word, suck. Next topic.
Advantage: Thunder
Battle of the Benches
The Thunder have size, leadership, and shooting off the bench. They have reliable big men in Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed, and (blecch) the clutch shot making and calming influence of Derek Fisher. Sefelosha might be the most underrated defender in the league, and can guard either Wade or LeBron without the aid of a double team. Daquean Cook, as we saw in the WCF, is capable of going ham from long distance at any time, and putting a team on his back for a 6 minute stretch. Not saying it will happen, but it could be a deciding factor in one of these games. Overall, OKC's bench is deeper and their role players are more reliable. Also, Cole Aldrich has a mohawk.
The Heat, on the other hand, somehow have yet to find a defined bench rotation despite having played 85 games this season. For some ungodly reason, Spoelstra insists on playing Mike Miller as the 3-point specialist wing, despite the fact that he has been moving like your Grandpa and bricks every open 3 he takes. James Jones is healthy and probably a more reliable shooter in the first place, but hey, Miller is white, so points for equal opportunity employment down there in South Beach. With Bosh presumably back in the starting lineup, Bane Shattier can finally return to the bench where he belongs. Honest to God, Battier ended up on the floor on every single play he was involved in during the ECF. No one in the history of the game has gone from having the 'rugged, no nonsense defender' reputation to 'flopping lame' quite like Bane Shattier. In the words of J Cole, "Son, ya lame. Ya Shane Battier." God, I hate him. But I digress...Norris Cole can provide decent minutes, but will not be a difference maker by any stretch of the imagination. No one else bears mentioning.
Advantage: Thunder
Coach: Scotty Brooks vs Erik Spoelstra
Both coaches have come under fire in the postseason for a perceived lack of adjustments and X's and O's acumen. The difference between the two is that Brooks has the pedigree of being a 10 year NBA veteran with a championship ring, and his players actually like playing for him. Brooks instills confidence in his players, and is able to keep an outrageously young team with a combustible PG incredibly poised and focused, no matter the situation- say, being down 2-0 to a team with 4 rings and the greatest coach and player of the last 15 years. With OKC's firepower, but finals inexperience, a calming presence is more needed than a tactician. Meanwhile, you get the feeling that the Heat have been winning despite Spoelstra, not because of him. LeBron and Wade have both publicly acknowledged the increased burden placed on them by Spo's inconsistent rotations. And then of course, there was this. During the pre-game speeches and stupid "wired" segments on ESPN, you can tell that Spoelstra never played the game at an elite level and has little motivational gravitas beyond spouting cliches while his voice cracks like a pre-pubescant boy. He's a good young coaching mind, but not exactly the kind of guy who inspires superstars and commands respect in the huddle. Side note, over/under the number of times he will put his hands on his hips, pin his sport coat back and look like an overwhelmed middle school teacher whose student just asked him if he sucked butt: 115.
Advantage: Thunder
Crowd
This:
Vs. this:
'Nuff said.
Advantage: Thunder
The Prediction: OKC in six. It won't be easy, but the deeper, better coached, more well rested team will win out. After a tumultuous, controversial, injury riddled NBA postseason, we can be sure that some sublime basketball will be on display over the next fortnight, and at the end we will see who's sitting on the throne, and who's merely watching it.
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